In 2008, the world ’s most advanced driverless cars could only be driven at 40 kilometers per hour in closed lanes and successfully avoided two obstacles, but four years later, the driverless cars can already be on real road conditions It is safe to drive at speeds of more than 100 kilometers per hour in the environment. The rapid development of driverless cars gives us reason to believe that its safety, reliability, and time-saving and energy-saving advantages are not out of reach. Now, the question before us is: When can driverless cars attract the deep attention of the government, venture investors and manufacturers? When can driverless cars enter the market?
The answer to these two questions is simple: very fast, much faster than you think. This article will explain why.
When assessing the feasibility of adopting a technology, always keep in mind what the futurist Professor Paul Saffo said: "Don't equate attention to detail with shortsightedness." At any time, no matter how powerful a certain technology is on paper, there are still many uncertainties in its feasibility and applicability in practical applications-such as cost, ease of use, consumer acceptance, Business model, vested interests, relevant rules and regulations, etc.
Killer apps and "subversion laws"
In the book "Unleashing the Killer App", the author Larry Downes defines the "law of subversion" in technology. Social, political, and economic systems have evolved gradually, while technology has exhibited exponential changes. Only when there is a difference between the current environment and this difference may become large enough due to technological innovations can society progress and undergo disruptive changes.
These disruptive changes provide opportunities for the birth of "killer applications." Some new things or services will stand out. For example, VisiCalc, the first electronic tabulation software, is a killer application for personal PCs, Mosaic, the industry ’s first web browser, is a killer application for the early Internet, and iPad is a killer application for tablets.
Next, we use the "subversion law" to infer the feasibility of the adoption of driverless car technology to see whether driverless cars can become "killer applications."
Advancement of driverless technology
The advanced nature of driverless technology is self-evident. The current driverless cars are better than many drivers. Google announced an interesting video two years ago: a blind person who is almost completely blind can also drive a Google driverless car.
The current Google driverless car technology has undergone tremendous improvements and improvements, and the lack of development of these technologies will eventually prompt the real driving of Google driverless cars on the road. Because, human cognition is basically obtained through practice. Google Auto will also continue to improve through Internet machine learning.
Google self-driving cars scattered on large and small blocks and roads can also provide the most detailed and timely information on road conditions, weather forecasts and itineraries through the mobile Internet. Every Google driverless car will share these real-time information, and then adjust the running state according to this information, so as to avoid the danger to the greatest extent and reduce unnecessary trouble on the way.
Opposition
With the continuous development of technology, Google's driverless cars may be questioned by some people:
Its cost is too high. Google's driverless cars cost more than $ 300,000. As described in the article by BusinessInsider, this is more expensive than Ferrari. Such a high price position is destined to make it difficult for Google's driverless cars to form a scale in the market.
Customers will not pay for it. Most customers will definitely not give up their posture rights, or believe in a driverless car 100%, and entrust their lives to a machine. This is a common view. In an article about Google's driverless cars, some readers commented:
"For most American car owners, the car is their 'dream machine', a reflection of their personal freedom and status. Every American dreams of owning a car, and no healthy American would dream of being a car." "Robot car" to control, no matter how convincing such a "robot car". "
Whoever bears the responsibility if something goes wrong. In a society with a sound legal system, car manufacturers are absolutely willing to take responsibility for all traffic accidents. In fact, when a car breaks down and causes a traffic accident and becomes disabled or fatal, the car manufacturer is liable.
It is against the current business model. Once Google's self-driving car is formed, it will bring negative chain effects to many industries, such as car manufacturers, car dealers, insurance companies and taxi associations, etc., they will find ways to obstruct and postpone driverless cars enter the market. Some commented that:
"It ’s not Google that sells self-driving technology to customers, but car manufacturers. However, no car manufacturer sells such self-driving cars, because self-driving technology may greatly reduce the accident rate of cars. . Car sharing will also be widely popularized, which reduces the sale of new cars. "
In the short term, automakers will also be cautious when considering applying driverless technology to high-end models.
If self-driving cars are really put into mass production, the transition period will still take decades. Under normal circumstances, the car will be replaced in 10-15 years, so even if the driverless car can be put into production today, maybe many years later we can see the figure of the driverless car in the streets, to Only then can we realize the many conveniences it brings us. If the driverless car takes a long time to form, maybe it will never become our consumer product, or it may be difficult to see such a product in our lifetime.
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