What kind of situation will happen in the home lighting market in 2010? This is the subject that many home lighting companies are researching and forecasting. In order to get a more accurate answer, we must analyze the demand trend of the real estate market in 2010, because the prosperity of the real estate market is directly related to the warmth of the home building materials market.
Based on the survey and comprehensive analysis of more than 20 large real estate companies and the country's real estate market policies, we can basically conclude that in 2010, the demand for home lighting products in China's real estate market will remain stable compared to 2009. situation. In the first and second quarters, the demand for renovated building materials in the first-hand housing market will remain relatively stable on the basis of this year. However, it should be noted that in the third and fourth quarters, the concentration of demand for decorative building materials in the real estate market is expected to shift to the potential market of the third and fourth grades.
Why do you come up with such research conclusions, mainly based on the following aspects of research and analysis?
First, the second-hand housing transaction business tax rate from January 1, 2010 from the preferential period of 2 years, to 5 years, then this policy adjustment led to a large purchase of housing after November 2009, especially the first The buyers of the second-home buyers will complete the transaction before the implementation of the New Deal. Then there will be a decoration boom in the first quarter of 2010. Their demand for home building materials will also be reflected in the first quarter of 2010.
Second, in order to curb the soaring housing prices, the state has recently introduced a new policy of "national four" to curb housing prices. Although these policies may play a certain role in calming the price of the real estate market, it will not reverse the basic trend of rising house prices, but only consciously control the price increase to a reasonable extent. Therefore, the sales volume of first-hand houses in 2010 is not expected to be greatly affected. Then, the stable situation of the volume of first-hand housing must drive the fine decoration market. Therefore, these real estate companies that provide refined decoration houses still have large purchases of household building materials. Domestic large-scale home lighting companies such as Op Lighting will undoubtedly not miss out. Direct dialogue and cooperation between real estate companies.
Third, the financial crisis has not been completely eliminated. If China's GDP in 2010 is to continue to achieve the 8% growth target, it must start from three aspects: stimulating exports, stimulating domestic demand and increasing investment. The strength of financial investment and the scale of credit will definitely Weak than in 2009, then exports and domestic demand will certainly be two major breakthroughs. In terms of stimulating domestic demand, the real estate market is undoubtedly the first to bear the brunt of the related industries. Therefore, the state will still allow rational growth of the real estate market within the scope of regulation, without strong pressure and reversal.
Fourth, the price of the real estate market in the first and second-tier cities will be slightly affected by the new policy of the country. However, in the context of the country's active promotion of urbanization, the third- and fourth-tier markets will inevitably become new types of potential consumers. Many real estate companies also The 2010 development target will be gradually released to the third- and fourth-tier markets. Therefore, we can judge that from the third quarter of 2010, the growth rate of first-hand housing sales in the third- and fourth-tier markets will be significantly higher than that in the first- and second-tier markets. They will also release a large demand for the decoration of building materials. Home lighting companies should start planning for the third and fourth-tier markets in early 2010.
From the above four aspects, we can initially predict that at least in the next one or two years, China's real estate market will not show a large downward trend, so it will still maintain a certain pull on the decoration building materials market. The effect of the level. Home lighting companies will also enjoy domestic demand orders along with this situation.
After making a preliminary judgment on the development trend of the real estate market, we will further analyze the demand categories of home lighting products. Which home lighting products will become a hot spot in the market? In the primary and secondary markets, the demand for decorative lighting (such as crystal lamps, lanterns, etc.) in individual housing will continue. The large-scale decoration houses will have greater demand for stereotyped home lighting products (such as ceiling lamps, glass lamps, etc.). In the third- and fourth-tier markets, conventional, home-based lighting products that are generous, simple, and cost-effective are expected to be significantly higher than decorative lighting products, because the consumption concepts and habits of ordinary consumers in this region determine their decoration. Invest or choose.
I hope that this analysis of the real estate market in 2010, as well as the development of the home lighting market in 2010, can serve as a reference for the decision-making of China's lighting companies' 2010 strategic planning.
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