The smart hardware is coming, and people are as happy as discovering the New World. This is a wave of progress, all the slots are temporary, and will be crushed by the rolling wheels of history.
Google Glass has burned the fire of hardware intelligence. Nest is $3.2 billion, Oculus is $2.3 billion, and Beats is about to become the next $3.2 billion. These rich stories are spurring a wave of entrepreneurs, capital, and resources to fend to smart hardware. However, we found that the smart hardware that started shortly looked beautiful, but there were quite a few slots.
First, the ideal full of realistic skinny: heavy punch on cotton
The concepts of big data, living room entrance, car entrance, fourth screen, and social hardware are endless. People talk about strategies more than tactics, and more pragmatism than pragmatism. The conference will love to talk about grand plans and talk less about user demand pain points and usage scenarios.
Many smart hardwares are smart and intelligent, networked for networking, and apps for the App. They fail to really grasp the user's painful needs and punch in cotton. One practitioner said indignantly that some smart hardware entrepreneurs are trying to fool investors into using the concept. I don't think so. After all, investors are not fools, and getting investment is not a flower. However, smart hardware entrepreneurs should really think about the initial heart: who is your user, what problem do you have to solve him, and why is your product?
Second, the project becomes scarce resources, and the excess of intelligent hardware services
“Reporting us, is it a draft fee?†This is a response from a smart hardware entrepreneur after receiving an invitation from our report.
The fiery heat of smart hardware has increased the number of services around smart hardware. With the supply chain services, crowdfunding websites, investment business, sales channels, marketing services and media reporting services, the choice of entrepreneurs is increasing. However, we found that it seems that some services seem to be surplus.
"Entrepreneurs are not afraid that products can't be sold, but they can't keep up with sales capacity." "As long as there is a good concept, it is not difficult to find an investment. Now it is a scarcity stage of the project." There are many such arguments, and of course many are pseudo-knowledge. However, the scarcity of the project does exist. In the project database of major technology media, there are no more than 500 intelligent hardware projects, while App developers are in the order of millions. Smart hardware doesn't open up like a pure app. The hardware and software combined with the production of the product has a lot more, the threshold is high, the production cycle is long, and the failure rate is also high. In the end, there are not many climate-building projects, but they become scarce resources. "Focus on smart hardware is more than smart hardware" is a true portrayal of this phenomenon.
Third, the shipment is not going up, the pain of the Internet model
Internet entrepreneurship, users below 100,000, you are still struggling to find investment stage. If the user breaks through a million, you start to think about the corporatization, or dream of being known by the giants. If the user breaks through 10 million, you can enter the giant candidate camp. In contrast, smart hardware startups are still mostly in the primitive society of slash and burn.
If you don't count smartphones and tablets, the fastest smart hardware is wearables, smart TVs, smart routers and some efficiency tools.
Wearable devices are the hottest with bracelets and smart watches. The largest shipments are the shells, which exceed 100,000, and the total number of hardware is tens of thousands. Smart TV claims to account for half of the shipments of 50 million TV sets. However, no truly intelligent Internet TV has exceeded one million sales. The TV box shipments are relatively large, and the overall number is nearly 10 million, but the cottage box is mostly. The intelligent router's router routing has just exceeded 300,000. The best-selling smart hardware is an efficiency tool such as portable WIFI. 360 portable WIFI has exceeded 10 million, because their low cost Internet companies can give away in a variety of ways.
But overall, most smart hardware entrepreneurs are still struggling within the 100,000 subsistence line. If a smart hardware pre-sale can exceed 10,000 sales, it is worth congratulating. The recently released ultra-screen TV with a capacity of 50,000 is scheduled to be an unexpected surprise. Smart hardware is not really zero profit, and the profit is quite considerable for the entrepreneurial team.
But this also reverses the fact that it is not realistic to graft the Internet model onto smart hardware. The entrance is good, big data is good, fans are also good, and they still need to go through the 100,000-100,000 long march.
Fourth, the phenomenon of jumping tickets is serious, and the production capacity has become a common short board.
In 2013, smart hardware hopping became a common phenomenon. There will be a jump ticket when there is a pre-sale, because Xiaomi has opened the river. When Xiaomi encounters problems with the production capacity of upstream chip makers such as Qualcomm, even if he does not want to do hunger marketing, it is difficult to hand over the issue. For smart hardware entrepreneurs like newborns, it is even more difficult to complete the hardware production on time and in good quality.
The reasons come from many aspects: the product does not rely too much on the addition function and components, and pursues the perfect temporary change program structure. The unique industrial design makes the mold, process and workers more difficult. All the previous product design structures have no matching mature supply chain. The ODM vendors bullied the weak startup team to put the production demand priority low... In short, we failed to see the hardware that was said to be good at the time of the pre-sale, or there were some deviations or problems in the product, and it was difficult to scream.
Different teams have different control capabilities in this area. Some teams are transformed from traditional manufacturing players. Some teams are hardware departments of the Internet giant, and their control capabilities will be stronger. But the entrepreneurial team in the narrow sense of starting from scratch has almost been difficult to bypass the nightmare of jumping tickets. The only thing they can do now is to add a large buffer time to the expected time to prepare for the event.
Fifth, the user tolerance is low, no chance of trial and error
Based on the previous points, if there is a jump ticket, the demand is not targeted, and the gap between the product and the expected product is large, the user will basically not pay the bill again.
Mobile QQ had a major product accident in an upgrade last year, and the emergency version was upgraded in just a few days. The App can carry out trial and error, rapid iteration, and small step running. Lei Jun once summed up the idea of ​​"first shoot and then aim". However, this has failed on smart hardware - there are only a handful of hardware versions of Xiaomi's mobile phones.
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