Recently, a blogger sparked a buzz on Weibo by posting what they claimed were spy photos of an "Apple OLED TV" measuring 60 inches. Accompanying the images was a detailed account of how this rumored Apple TV would supposedly redefine the TV experience with its sleek design and advanced features. However, Apple TV rumors have been circulating for quite some time. Ever since the introduction of Apple TV, it seems like every year brings fresh speculation about the company's potential entry into the television market.
This year, with the iPhone finally adopting OLED screens, the talk of an "OLED Apple TV" seems to have faded into the background. But has Apple ever seriously considered venturing into the TV business? If they were to dive into the television industry now, how competitive could they be?
Steve Jobs' vision for Apple's television lineup has been a topic of much discussion. In Walter Isaacson's biography of Jobs, it's revealed that Jobs had a four-year product roadmap that included a revolutionary TV. He envisioned a TV that would bring innovation akin to what Apple had achieved with computers, music players, and phones. This TV would be seamless, user-friendly, and capable of gaming, Blu-ray playback, and streaming video—all without requiring complex setups or multiple remotes. It would be as elegant and intuitive as other Apple products.
Dr. Moh, a prominent tech commentator, noted that Jobs aimed to revolutionize television before his passing, hoping to improve its usability. Indeed, Apple's previous products—like the iPod, iPad, and iPhone—have set new entertainment trends. For the TV, the largest entertainment hub, Apple likely harbored big ambitions.
However, in Brent Schlender's book "Becoming Steve Jobs," Jobs himself seemed ambivalent about entering the TV market. In the late '90s, he reportedly dismissed TV as something he didn't care for, stating that Apple would never produce a TV. Some authors, like those behind "The Empire That Was Apple," echoed this sentiment, arguing that TVs offer low-profit margins and infrequent upgrades.
While we can only speculate about Jobs' true intentions, Apple has shown a gradual openness to the TV space since the release of the first-generation Apple TV in 2007. Despite not fully committing to hardware, Apple TV remains a key part of Apple's ecosystem.
Apple Missed the Boat on TVs
From the perspective of the latest Apple TV leaks, features like HDR and 4K aren't groundbreaking. The integration of Siri and partnerships with content providers like Netflix, MLB, and HBO are common across many platforms. In China, where OTT services are thriving, this model isn't particularly novel.
Though Apple hasn't abandoned the TV space entirely, its influence in the industry has waned. With competitors moving swiftly, Apple risks further marginalization unless it acts soon. Perhaps Jobs might have taken risks, but Tim Cook is unlikely to do so.
Thus, the recent "Apple OLED TV" rumors are likely just media hype or an effort by the OLED Alliance to drum up interest.
Let's imagine a hypothetical scenario: If Apple had released an Apple TV before 2009, during the rise of smart TVs, the landscape might resemble that of smartphones today, with iOS TV and Android TV vying for dominance. Had Apple entered the market in 2013, coinciding with the emergence of OLED technology, they might have seized leadership in the OLED TV segment, akin to LG's current position.
Yet, even if Apple had succeeded, it wouldn't necessarily translate into widespread adoption. Sony, despite its technological prowess in TV manufacturing, struggles with profitability and content availability. Even Sony's recent pivot towards flexible strategies, like partnering with Tencent in China, highlights the challenges of maintaining relevance.
If Apple TV were to emerge, it too might face similar hurdles. Apple isn't a pioneer in every field; rather, it often rides waves of innovation. For instance, Apple's HomeKit initiative in 2014 sought to extend its reach into smart TVs. Yet, Google and Amazon have surged ahead with AI assistants like Echo Show and Google Home, leaving Apple's approach, which relies heavily on hardware and remains relatively closed, lagging behind.
OLED TVs Offer Little Hope for Apple
Apple's struggles in smart home services have already relegated it to a follower role. Entering the TV hardware space, especially in OLED TVs, would likely result in even greater challenges.
Consider the current state of the OLED TV supply chain. Most OLED materials are closely tied to Samsung, with Japan's Canon Tokki handling nearly 90% of its output for Samsung. LG Display dominates large-screen WOLED panels, while domestic companies like BOE are still testing the waters. Technically, WOLED may not be the optimal solution, but it offers the best balance of cost, picture quality, and lifespan. Sony, once a pioneer in RGB OLED, encountered issues like low yields and burn-in problems, leading to exorbitant prices—a known bottleneck in the industry. For Apple to break through in this area would take significant time and resources.
In terms of the market, domestic Chinese manufacturers like Skyworth and Konka have already formed an OLED alliance. In North America, LG holds sway, with Panasonic and Sony capturing some premium segments. If Apple were to enter the OLED TV market now, it would struggle to make meaningful headway due to existing competition in products, technology, and market presence.
As a company always aiming to lead industries, Apple is unlikely to enter this crowded space now. If they were to do so, it would likely have been during Jobs' era.
Conclusion: TVs are not as essential as smartphones. With the rise of mobile internet, people have more ways to access information, reducing the TV's importance in daily life. While AI offers a temporary revival for TV, it doesn't fundamentally change its role as a family-centric device. Although the likelihood of Apple succeeding in TVs diminishes, we hope the industry continues to innovate and bring us products that revolutionize home entertainment, just as the iPhone did.
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