LED die out of stock continues to burn, in addition to the original metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) machine shortage, the industry has raised three shortcomings, including sapphire substrates, chemical sources and talents are lacking, while including in the terminal market The LED backlight penetration rate of TV and monitors has increased, driving demand is not reduced. Equipment manufacturers believe that even if the LED industry expands significantly, there will be no oversupply in 2010, and it is expected to continue to be good in the first half of 2011. .
Wang Keyang, general manager of Veeco Greater China, said that MOCVD is still in tight supply in the second quarter. After the first-line manufacturers seized most of the machines, the second-line factories also rushed in. This wave of equipment is in short supply, except In addition to the large increase in production demand, many components are also rushing for goods due to semiconductor equipment. Therefore, the market supply is tight, and the integrated molding cavity is also out of stock, resulting in tight supply of equipment. The current delivery period is controlled at about 6 months.
At present, the main suppliers of MOCVD are AIXTRON and Veeco, both of which have a market share of 90%. According to LEDInside statistics, Aixtron and Veeco together estimate that shipments in 2010 will grow twice as much as in 2009. According to equipment industry statistics, in 2009, global MOCVD shipments were about 180 units. It is estimated that it will jump to 600-680 units in 2010, of which about 300-350 units are in Greater China.
Wang Keyang further pointed out that in addition to equipment out of stock, including sapphire substrates, chemical sources and talents are the three shortcomings facing the LED industry. The sapphire substrate has increased by 10-15% since March, and may increase further in April. However, it is expected that the supply and demand balance will be restored in the second half of the year. As for the chemical source, the rise is even more fierce. Some manufacturers have increased their prices by 100%. Although the supplier intends to expand production, it will take some time to reach the capacity, so it is the longest one among the three. As for the talents, due to the expansion of production capacity, more personnel are needed to operate the machine. In addition, the mainland LED factory has been actively digging Taiwan talents in recent years, and the long-term fear will affect the strength of Taiwanese factories.
The industry pointed out that the LEDTV penetration rate is expected to reach 25% in 2010, and even 35%, which is more optimistic than the previous estimate. The monitor penetration rate was originally estimated to be 10~13%, and currently it is 17~20%. Grab the LED grain war, as the lighting penetration rate is still low, it is estimated to reach 10% in 2011, and in 2012 it will be the first year of the start.
Wang Keyang pointed out that in the absence of equipment, sapphire substrates, chemical sources and talents, the demand side is still not falling, the penetration rate of LEDTV is greatly increased, and the monitor accidentally joins the battlefield of LED chips. Therefore, there is no doubt about oversupply in 2010, LED boom It is expected that all the way to the first half of 2011, as for the market trend in the second half of 2011, it is necessary to regard the mainland subsidy policy.
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