Technological innovation is like surfing, waves of waves, and the frequency is getting higher and higher, the intensity is getting bigger and bigger, and the influence is getting wider and wider.
If the first generation of iPhone in 2007 is the starting point of the smart phone, the "golden decade" of the mobile phone is about to pass, and it is entering a platform period. The product, technology and market scale can no longer grow explosively.
But in the past 8 years, almost everyone has been completely involved in the tide of mobile life. The real-time online and connectivity revolution brought by “mobile†is affecting all industries and changing top-down. field. People realize that all products are as smart as mobile phones, and they are updated online in real time and self-iteration. At the same time, mobile phones have greatly improved the connectivity of people. “Connect†has become the foundation of business development, even faith. . Next, there will naturally be a greater number of “people-to-material†connections, “things and thingsâ€; people realize the power of open platforms and ecological business models, realizing that hardware is just the gateway to software and services. platform…
It can be seen that the changes in mobile phones are and have profoundly affected all industries.
So what is the next “Golden Decade� We will look down on our side...
That's right, it's the car.
As a means of transportation, the basic function of a car is to move safely. Originally under the same road conditions, in fact, the speed and safety of the movement are not much different. In addition to the pursuit of driving control, ride comfort, car entertainment and electronic level, it is better. Beyond the experience, it seems that only the identity of the brand difference can be pursued.
Today, in the new era of automotive intelligence, we have the opportunity to return the car to its most original face – the automatic displacement tool. This means that the car's intelligence is far more than just having an app that can connect and control the car; it's not just a car that can be used for Internet and real-time entertainment.
“Drive†This concept, which lasted for more than a hundred years, will begin to change in the next decade. “Car†will become a “traffic robot†(TrafficRobo) without driving.
Driverless technology is a system that includes cameras, computers, sensors, map software and radar to complete the function of a driver driving a vehicle. Different modules of the system communicate and coordinate with each other, doing millions of operations per second to control vehicle acceleration, braking and steering. A complete driverless, mainly consists of three systems:
Basic GPS and map information: Map information contains precise locations of various stationary objects on the road, such as utility poles, sidewalks, fire hydrants, and more. Map data must be accurate to the order of centimeters and must be updated in real time, which means that the ability to have real-time online “map data†is an unmanned infrastructure. The map has been verified as the entrance of O2O. In fact, the core application scenario of online map is driving, so the deep integration of online map and automobile industry is an inevitable trend, or in other words, all those who have plans for the future auto industry must It is not possible to directly control the map, or at least have a firm map "alliance".
Cameras and sensors: Sensors continuously scan 360 degrees. The radar is used to monitor vehicles and obstacles on the road and can see objects two hundred meters away. Cameras are used to identify road signs and traffic signals. LIDAR (Laser Illumination Detector) Millions of measurements per second by laser. Both smart cars and driverless drivers require a series of (more and more) internal and external sensors. The current cost is very expensive. Because the scale is too small, it is necessary to reduce costs by concentrating large-scale purchases, for example. LIDAR's procurement costs must be reduced from $60,000/car to $1,000/car to be commercially available on a large scale. Uniform standards, large-scale centralized procurement is the only way for sensor kits.
Real-time computing: Analyze the massive amounts of real-time data collected and then guide the operation of the vehicle. The processor will select the optimal solution based on long-term accumulated driving experience. In the future, more vehicles will communicate with each other and share various road conditions and bearing data in real time to optimize driving routes and reduce the possibility of car accidents.
From here we can see that the nature of driverlessness is not a car with mechanical characteristics, but an Internet service system with computing as its core. Then you can imagine who is the real service provider of driverless service? Obviously not a car manufacturer.
We are flying the past in the development of China's automobile industry.
The huge population market, the unprecedented urbanization process, the rapid development of the economic level, and many factors have made the world's largest automobile consumer market in just over ten years. The unique legal and policy environment also allows China to have the largest production capacity of complete vehicles and accessories. China is also the world's largest automobile producing country. This scale of production and consumption, a variety of rich forms of urban and road environments, determine that this is the best soil for practicing unmanned driving.
China is the most dangerous place in the world for driving, and several central cities are among the most congested cities in the world. More than 20% of global car accidents occur in China, and 90% of fatal traffic accidents are caused by humans. Why driving in China is so dangerous that it is not described here, but the urgency of China to solve dangerous driving and transportation is undoubtedly the highest in the world. The most important value of driverless driving is precisely safety, so there is no reason for China not to become an autonomous pilot.
The highly developed and mature industrial ecology of the world allows the Chinese auto industry to achieve considerable success with the “follow-up†development model, but it also determines that we have no possibility of transcending. It is impossible for all joint-venture brand independent brands to become world-class companies with industry-leading capabilities. This is the "big but not strong" we often feel. In the face of the historical trend of unmanned driving, the first-class auto manufacturers in Europe, America and Japan are different. They are not willing to give up the dominant position in the development of automobiles. Each manufacturer is spending a lot of manpower and resources to create a so-called self. drive. But like the mobile phone Nokia to engage in Symbian, BlackBerry to engage in BlackBerryOS, Microsoft Lumia insisted on using WindowsPhone OS, even Samsung has engaged in bata, failed to die, and now launched TIzen... Niubi people are not willing to bow down, but the king of the world after all Belongs to a minority. If you realize that unmanned driving is the trend of black technology, the nature of driverlessness is computing-centric Internet services, and it is even less necessary to make unnecessary consumption and resistance for the so-called dominance.
China's auto manufacturers are different. First, we don't have enough power to dominate the auto manufacturing industry. There is no such thing as a difference. Second, the market is too big. We only focus on achieving large-scale revenue and high growth on the platform. enough. As for the automakers who occasionally see the media, the so-called self-developed unmanned news, look at it, those more are doing it, to show that they are following the trend. According to my understanding, they have neither the ability nor the truth. In the virgin forest, the rule of nature is whether an animal can survive and be powerful, depending on its ability to evolve with the environment. I think that when the unmanned wind really blows, Chinese automakers will be far more active than European and American manufacturers, even open their arms and embrace drones as they embraced andriod. If so, Chinese cars will achieve a true and comprehensive transcendence of European and American cars in the era of driverless driving. Today, the evolution of the mobile phone industry will re-emerge in the automotive industry in the near future.
For a hundred years, cars have been regarded as symbols of a certain industrial civilization. It broadens the boundaries of human individual freedom and shortens the distance between people; it also allows humans to defy themselves and doubt the prosperity they have created themselves. After all, there is no traffic jam or exhaust pollution in the era of carriages. .
Until the emergence of large computers, PCs and mobile phones, the excitement they seem to cover far from the invention of the car.
One day, driverlessness will return the car to its original face – the automatic displacement tool. In this case, the corresponding business model will undergo profound and significant changes.
- Driverless cars are not for sale!
The era of private cars is about to pass quickly. Users no longer have a private car as a yearning lifestyle, because the mobile phone can call a driverless car at any time to pay, according to the length of use and mileage, call it The swaying, Shenma maintenance, illegal payment, accident repair, car wash parking are now used to it, the car has been natural to wait for it all gone.
In a word, driverless cars are traffic robots. This will be a trillion-dollar super industry. Within three years, we may not see commercial driverless cars on the road. But in the next 10 years, this technological change will bring about super changes in the automotive industry and the transportation industry.
In this trillion industry, the industrial value of the car will be regrouped:
Autopilot system SDS (self-drivingsystem) inside (equivalent to Qualcomm + android)
A complete vehicle manufacturer (equivalent to a mobile phone brand) equipped with an SDS system
Travel service platform TSP (TransportService Platform such as uber, easy to...)
Since users are paid for by duration of use and mileage, the same is true for the distribution of benefits for the service portfolio:
Different sizes and grades of cars have different service pricing, TSP extraction service commission (now the special platform mode)
What is excessive is that SDS also charges the real-time driving service fee “on time + mileageâ€. For this reason, SDS is willing to provide the kit to the automaker free of charge, because the business of collecting service fees is much more comfortable than bidding to the OEM as a supporting factory; It is important that the SDS will unify the standard-led services, and the OEMs will actively adapt to the SDS standards.
OEMs do not have the ability to continue to serve users, and ultimately only earn a meager hardware manufacturing profit.
Of course, this asset of the car still needs investors or holders. TSP investment holding is ok, but it is very large and there is still a need for offline operation services (car wash, inspection.... Of course, no longer need these, drone inspection, car wash robot car wash), consumer investment Franchising operations or asset re-securitisation are all possible directions.
These are not necessarily completely accurate, but the car industry is about to change dramatically. This is the trend that has come in the future. The scale of the automobile industry may be several times that of the mobile phone industry. The opportunities and values ​​here are heart-rending.
If you look at the future, the exploration of the car is just beginning. A car service that can be on call, it is just a warm-up, far from being all travel. Future cars, which will include electric, shared, new energy, car networking, driverless, and other broader imaginary spaces that we can't predict today.
For platforms such as easy-to-use cars, opportunities may come earlier.
As a practitioner who cares about future travel, I personally experienced almost all the unmanned vehicles in the world, and I have had in-depth communication with almost all traditional car manufacturers. I found that everyone has a contradictory attitude towards smart cars and driverless driving – both excited and far-reaching; but at the same time, the automotive industry and the Internet industry understand the unmanned path. Nanbei North.
In short, a market that exists in the future is too tempting, but it presents some confusion at the moment. The forces of various factions are coming, and the world is expecting new orders and integrators. I hope that you and I will not be absent.
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