According to Digitimes' estimation, the global LED industry has entered a period of change in power consumption. With the price war of Japanese lighting manufacturers, LED lighting has entered the first year of take-off. South Korea and mainland China have also come to the forefront, which has intensified competition in regional industries and prompted Taiwan. The LED industry is accelerating the layout of lighting applications. However, the LED production capacity competition in 2011 may cause oversupply, and the competition between Taiwanese and international manufacturers will also heat up.
Large-size LCD backlight and LED lighting are regarded as the twin engines of growth kinetic energy in 2011. The industry estimates that compared with the global LED lighting penetration rate of about 3% in 2010, the LED lighting penetration rate in 2011 is expected to reach 6~10%, especially The development of LED lighting in Japan is the most concerned. Due to the fierce competition in the market, the price of LED bulbs in the first-tier manufacturers including Toshiba and Panasonic has been cut in 2010. The Taiwan LED industry estimates that it is reducing costs. Under the trend, the price of LED bulbs will continue to slide in 2011.
The LED industry pointed out that the price of LED products in Europe and the United States is about 1.5 US dollars per watt, and the price of Taiwanese factories is 1.2 US dollars. It is cost competitive. Due to the shortage of LED supply in 2010, the annual price decline is gentle until the fourth season. There is a more obvious price decline, among which, the price of high-power LEDs has dropped by about 10~15%. Looking forward to the cost reduction of LEDTV in 2011, more LED die production capacity will be used for lighting applications, and high-power LED lighting is expected to face at least 15-20% price decline.
The LED industry estimates that the output value of LED industry in Taiwan will reach NT$151.6 billion in 2010, with a growth of about 60%. The output value in 2011 is expected to challenge RMB 201.5 billion. The output value in 2012 and 2013 is expected to challenge RMB 270 billion and RMB 380 billion respectively. The global LED industry's output value will challenge the $50 billion mark in the next three years, and regional industry competition will heat up.
With the global LED packaging and module production value comparison, the Japanese manufacturer's market share is about 31%, ranking first, while Taiwan and South Korea respectively reach 20%, Europe and the United States each account for about 10%, of which South Korea. In 2009, the market share was only about 10%, but it has jumped rapidly to 20% in one year, which is in line with Taiwan's LED industry. The industry is more predicting that the output value of South Korea's LED will continue to grow in the next two years. It is expected that the market share of LED packaging will increase to 24~25%, and the market share of LED packaging in Taiwan will be in place.
However, the LED industry pointed out that as the capacity utilization rate of Korean LED factories is still low, the expansion of production has slowed significantly since the second half of 2010. Instead, the Taiwanese factory has benefited from the Korean factory's demand for TV backlights, which has increased greatly. The purchase of LEDs has led to a significant growth in LED production capacity. However, the mainland LED industry is catching up. The upstream MOCVD machines may be opened in the second half of 2011. The industry is worried that once the South Korean LED factory technology is upgraded, the mainland industry's production capacity will also increase. Terrorism will set off a competition for oversupply, and the LED market will enter into price-competition competition, and the price decline may reach more than 30%.
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