Today's lighting market is the world of LED, energy saving and emission reduction has become the slogan of many industries. The gap between led illumination cost and fluorescent lamp is less than 5 times. The cost per watt is still 10 times higher than that of commonly used high-efficiency light sources such as fluorescent lamps. However, due to the unidirectional light source characteristics of LEDs, detailed product design, and high-efficiency driving circuits, the illumination cost is within 5 times. The illuminance corresponds to the number of lumens in a particular area and is an indicator that the user really cares about. The difference between the cost per watt and the cost of illumination is that the LED lamp will have a power saving effect of about 50% compared to a fluorescent lamp or the like.
At present, cold white LED lamps are economical in the field of non-residential lighting. Considering the calculation of the power saving effect, it can be seen that the LED lamp can recover the cost by using about 10,000 hours, and the product life has actually exceeded this level significantly. In order to consider the impact of time value, we use a discount rate of 20%, and still find that the current price, 10 hours / day, 250 days / year of use has a positive economic value, which will include most non-residential lighting applications.
There is still a huge room for cost reduction, including improved light efficiency, economies of scale, and reasonable return of industrial profits. The decline in chip prices has begun. At the end of 2011, the cost of LED lighting will be 30-40% lower than the current one. We believe this price will start after warm white, or 4-6 hours/day, including most non-residential lighting applications. And in 2012 home lighting will also start.
In November, the LED lighting demonstration application project will change the user's understanding of the product characteristics of LED. The pre-standard market competition and experience make it difficult for users to agree with the long life of 20,000 hours of LED. The short-listed enterprises for demonstration application engineering mainly include Zhejiang Sunshine and NVC Lighting.
Massive LED market, LED lighting involves chips, packaging, thermal materials, light-guided anti-reflective materials, drivers and other fields. About 20% of global electricity consumption is lighting, and LED lighting will save more than half of electricity consumption, which is the potential market capacity of LEDs.
The chip field focuses on the development of Silan Micro and Great Wall. Although the price of short-term LED lighting chips is on the decline channel, lighting demand will eventually improve the supply and demand pattern. Silan micro-display chips are less affected by price declines, and their blue-green optical chips are at the domestic first-class level; Great Wall Development has large-scale manufacturing management capabilities, and is expected to become a first-class upstream and downstream integrated manufacturer with the support of wafers and Everlight. .
The back-end packaging and application is a more noteworthy area in 2011, because the chip supply link includes the decline in chip prices and will trigger lighting application expectations; LED lighting chips currently account for only about 15% of the total lamp price, and huge product added value. It is in the latter stage of manufacturing and channel; unlike the previous Chinese TV companies in the TV backlight market, the global lighting manufacturing capacity has been concentrated in China, and Chinese companies will become the dominant force. Focus on Guoxing Optoelectronics, Zhejiang Sunshine, and focus on Fujing Technology.
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