Global high-brightness LED market output forecast in 2012

It is estimated that the annual growth rate of the high-brightness LED market will be 13.4% and the scale will reach 10.1 billion U.S. dollars; however, the demand for MOCVD machines in 2012 will be significantly reduced to 200 units, and the LED industry in the first half of the year will be weaker. It is difficult to revert to the high growth situation in 2010. If new equipment is built, it is expected to focus on the installation in the second half of 2012.

In 2012, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan accounted for 61.3% of the total high-brightness LED market. It can be said that the development trend of LED industry in Asia dominates. Among them, the growth rate in China in 2012 will reach 30%, mainly due to the large number of previously ordered MOCVD machines, there will be about 150 deferred production in 2012, but it is worth noting that the mainland LED products will still be in the low-power Mainly. From the perspective of the change in the percentage of high-brightness LED applications, the proportion of LED backlights for large-size applications will reach 34.1% in 2012, which is higher than other applications. Lighting applications will reach 16.7%. By 2014, the proportion of these two will reach respectively. 28.7%, 33.4%.

In view of the more rapid development of the LED bulb market, in 2012 new products will replace the 60W incandescent lamp. However, it is worth noting that the price of a 60W LED bulb with a brightness of 800 lm is still high at US$40. The sweet spots for the market are also different, ranging from US$25 in Japan, US$15 in Europe and the United States, and US$7 in emerging regions. Therefore, the proportion of energy-saving light bulbs is still high in 2012, and the relative penetration rate of LED bulbs will be 5.4%, while the number of shipments will reach 1.05 billion.

In terms of the overall LED lighting market, although the penetration rate in 2011 was only 6.6%, there is great potential for growth in the future. Countries have introduced relevant policies and preferential measures in the development of LED lighting, among which, Japan plans to account for 50% of the general lighting market, 30% for South Korea, and 20% for mainland China in 2015. Several years will lead to phased tasks; in addition, LED technology itself continues to advance, and the US-based DOE will set targets for 2014. The luminous efficiency of white LED components will reach 200 lm/W in 2014, and the price will drop to about $2/ Klm, and the vendor technology process will exceed the above values.

Therefore, the penetration rate of global LED lighting market will increase from 11.3% in 2012 to 25.8% in 2014, and the output value will increase from 16.5 billion US dollars in 2012 to 4.19 billion US dollars in 2014.