In 2018, one month has passed without knowing it. The upcoming Chinese New Year is also an important promotional holiday. It has been a busy year. Everyone is willing to treat themselves or their families at the end of the year. Needless to say, this is also the DIY installed market. A good day. The most irresponsible computer accessories in the past year were memory products such as memory and SSD hard drives. In particular, the memory price hike was fierce. A single 8GB memory once approached 1,000 yuan. Even if it has dropped back, the overall price remains at 700 yuan. In the vicinity, with two pieces of memory, the average cost of installation is a thousand dollars higher than a year ago, which is a high price for mainstream users.
The current situation in the memory market: prices are basically stable, and a single 8GB still needs more than 700 blocks
Recently I did not know if everyone noticed it. In the past two or three months, I rarely saw the news that the price of memory was greatly increased. The actual situation was indeed the case. The price of the mainstream 8GB memory reached a peak, and the price was almost equal to a thousand dollars. The price did not last for a few days, and it soon fell below 800 yuan and stabilized at this price point.
It is rude to say that the last 8GB memory price impact of 1,000 yuan is not a reasonable market behavior, because the memory particles have been steadily rising, but there is no unexpected situation at the end of October, Apple iPhone new content capacity does not increase, It did not cause much impact on the memory supply. So the skyrocketing was more like a conspiracy price increase between upstream and downstream manufacturers such as distributors and manufacturers. To further push up memory prices, JS hopes to hoard, but the market did not buy it and was sold at a high price. The DIY players who have suppressed the demand are indifferent and the price quickly falls back to the previous level.
So the typical 8GBDDR4-2400 memory price of 700 yuan is reasonable and unreasonable? We can calculate it. The price of memory chips can be found on Dramxchnage's website. The current 8Gb (note the difference in case) DDR4-2133/2400 particles are quoted at an average price of about US$9.6. It will be 494 yuan.
However, memory modules also need PCB, heat sink (non-essential) and other raw materials, which add up to at least count as 100, then 8GB memory boring costs probably will be 600, so count, then the price of more than 700 really is not Expensive - but here the calculation is too simplified, the memory chip manufacturers use the contract price of the chip purchase price, cheaper than the spot price of 9.6 US dollars, PCB, heat sink costs are not the same in every memory manufacturer, But also to take into account the logistics, taxation and other costs, compromises down the profit margin of the memory manufacturers is not low, the past two years the manufacturers of the memory field are too much, Samsung, Micron and SKHynix three suppliers of profits can be said to skyrocket.
The trend of memory prices in 2018: It will continue to rise now, or in the second half of the year.
Samsung, as the world's largest supplier of memory pellets, has a share of 45%, so it is the most profitable in this wave of memory (and flash memory) prices, but Samsung's share price has been encountered a few days ago. A decline, the cumulative decline of more than 7.5%, SKHynix also fell 6.2%, the reason is that the market sees decline in memory prices.
Reported that last year's Q4 quarter memory chip prices fell by 5%, analysts predict that this year's memory chip growth will be only half of last year, which is only increased by about 30%, 2017 memory chip market increased by 70%, industry scale reached $122 billion.
This incident represents that the market is looking at the decline in the memory chip market and is pessimistic about maintaining high prices. However, analysts' predictions can only be said to be half correct. Although the memory market price has declined in Q4 last year, it will be 2018. Q1 quarter is still rising, Samsung and other companies have announced to customers that Q1 quarter memory grain contract prices rose about 5%. In view of this, in 2018, it is not easy to expect a large price reduction in memory. Q1 is in an off-season and prices are increasing. Q2 must be stockpiled for the Q3 and Q4 seasons, and the price will not easily decline.
However, there are many variables in the second half of the year. At present, memory flash memory will be reduced in price. We also tend to lower prices. The reasons are as follows:
Smartphone market is cold, lack of support for memory prices
One of the most important reasons for the large price increase of memory chips from 2016 to the present is the increasing market demand. In particular, mobile memory has benefited from the increasing memory capacity and higher sales volume of smart phones, so there has been an imbalance between supply and demand. . However, by 2018, the high demand for smart phones is not so exaggerated. The high-end mobile phones released from the second half of last year are still between 4GB and 6GB, and the 8GB models are rare.
More importantly, the sales of smart phones did not reach expectations. This market has long been not the Red Sea. Reports from the China Institute of Information and Communication Technology reported that domestic mobile phone sales in the country were 42.61 million units in December last year, down 32.5% year-on-year, 1-12. The total monthly sales of 491 million units, down 12.3% year-on-year, of which domestic brands sold 436 million units, down 12.4% year-on-year.
Not only did the sales of Chinese mobile phone manufacturers decline, but also international brands such as Samsung and Apple also encountered various crises. The rumors such as the poor sales of the iPhone 8 and the worse-than-expected iPhone X were all awkward. It all explains the dilemma of the smart phone market, and the smart phone uses Mobile memory is the bulk of memory shipments, accounting for close to 40%, this large market has lost growth, has a strong change in the supply and demand of the memory market, and now the growth momentum is gone, the memory wants to continue to increase prices also lost grounds.
Flash memory capacity will increase significantly to ease stock-out problems
In solving the imbalance between supply and demand, in addition to the sharp increase in demand caused by the smart phone market, capacity growth will also be a key factor in pushing down memory prices. In the year of rising memory prices, Samsung, Micron, and SKHynix, which made a lot of money, also began to increase capital expenditures and increase memory and flash memory capacity, taking into account the fab's one-to two-year construction cycle, from 2016 to In 2018, large-scale production just started. In 2018, the growth of memory chip capacity may be faster than expected.
Hynix announced that it has invested 8.6 billion U.S. dollars in new memory factories in Wuxi, China. Its monthly production capacity has reached 200,000 wafers. Samsung also increased its capital expenditure last year to more than 30 billion U.S. dollars and its memory capacity will also grow from 400,000 wafers. Monthly increase to 500,000 wafers/month. Micron also announced that it has invested 2 billion U.S. dollars to increase its memory capacity after the acquisition of Taiwan Inacore, and advanced memory development such as 13nm advanced technology. The three major upstream manufacturers have made efforts to expand production, which will increase the total memory capacity in 2018 to a certain level. It is expected to be mass-produced from the Q3 quarter this year, and the supply situation in the memory market will be significantly reversed in the second half of the year.
Development and Reform Commission, will not sit idly by memory prices
In a normal market economy, memory prices and price cuts should be market behavior. Now, with the increase in production capacity and declining demand, it is normal for memory prices to return to rationality. However, reviewing the price increase process during the year, this wave of price increases also has In many unreasonable places, the Chinese market and consumers are most seriously injured. The memory prices increase three or four times a year. Consumers in the Chinese market can only accept it silently. Domestic manufacturers have no competition in this field.
However, this problem has now also attracted the attention of government departments. Not long ago, there were reports that the NDRC had interviewed Samsung and other companies to understand the issue of memory flash memory prices. Although it was only an interview and did not take any substantive investigations, it did not A strong signal to the market is that it will not sit in the eyes of consumers’ rights and interests. The current interview may not cause memory price cuts, but this move will have some deterrent effect on some dealers and manufacturers operating the price of memory, and will reduce the price of unreasonable prices.
In view of these three points, the memory market has a lot of changes in 2018. In the first half of the year, due to market inertia, the price of memory chips is still rising, although the increase is not high. However, from the situation in the second half of the year, due to the decline in demand for smart phone market, coupled with the new capacity of the memory factory in the second half of the year, the memory supply and demand situation will change or even reverse, and price reduction is a very high probability.
How to choose memory in 2018? Which is more important than frequency, vest, RGB, or core?
How to choose memory? Taking the mainstream DDR4 platform as an example, the 4GB DDR4 memory is very small due to the reason of the particles. Now the start is almost 8GBDDR4. The starting frequency is 2133MHz, and now it is DDR4-2400. In terms of frequency, it is recommended that ordinary players do not tangled too much, high-frequency memory 3000 + or even 4000 + MHz is very strong and very powerful.
However, the current system performance bottleneck is not in memory. UHF memory has limited performance enhancement, but the price is much more expensive. If you are not an enthusiast, you don't need to consider the ultra-high-frequency memory, DDR4-2400 is available, and there are some lower prices. DDR4-3000/3200 memory, this can also choose.
There are general and subsections of the memory, and the price of the general merchandise is lower. However, the current market situation is different. Because the overall price is soaring, there is no price advantage compared to the general public. The vest memory is popular. Manufacturers always advertise how cool the various vest designs are, and how good the materials are. However, these horses and horses are all made of aluminum alloy materials, which can add a bit of protection to the memory and improve some cooling efficiency. However, the most important function is actually to install B.
Of course, the vest is still the basis of the LED lights, now the memory in the frequency, performance, PCB materials more and more similar, can play the trick is the LED lights, the high-end point of the memory is now common on the RGBLED lights, and some also Supports RGB sync control with the motherboard. In the question of whether or not to need lights, many players have the opposite opinions. Those who do not like light pollution do not want to see LED lights. They feel natural. The player who likes coolness and personality is of course not a non-RGB light. Now 8GB DDR4 memory which is priced at more than 800 yuan usually has RGB lights.
The general player chooses the memory to focus on these above, but these may not be important to some enthusiasts. The first thing they value is memory particles. The current DDR4 memory particles are mainly supplied by Samsung, Micron, and SKHynix. Although these three particles are All DDR4 specifications, but each process, technology is different, so it has produced a different core, of which Samsung's BDie core particles have the best recognized performance, stability is also excellent, in the extreme overclocking CAS (CL), TRCD, The three timings of the TRP are fully synchronized, and it is the first choice for audiophiles to keep the timing C12-12-12 running at 3866-4300MHz (or higher) to complete Benchmark tests of various world records.
Micron's D9 particles use a 20nm process, the frequency peak can reach 3333-3466MHz (about 20% yield), the 3000MHz yield is about 50%, the limit overclocking is not surprising. SKHynix's MFR, AFR particle peak frequency is generally maintained at 3200-3333MHz (about 20% yield), 60% yield is concentrated in 3000MHz; if you want to overclock to 3600-4000MHz, you need to pressurize to about 2V.
The key is to keep your eyes open. Don't be cheap
Continued price hikes in the past two years not only allow consumers to pay higher costs when installed, but also make consumers choose to have more risks in memory - due to the high cost of profitable memory, there have been many new manufacturers in the past year. Joined the memory market, and some small manufacturers are struggling to get a stable, high-quality supply of memory particles, but also take the risk of playing a lace ball, use fake particles, etc., while attracting consumers with low prices, which may make it not Less player heartbeat, but once you buy these seemingly cost-effective no-name cards, it is a hidden danger to system stability, reliability, and data security.
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