Market growth performance is often an important indicator dimension for measuring the rise and fall of the industry. In the winter heating season in 2017, the air purification market, which should have been in the peak season, is much more deserted than before. When the empty net industry reached the "trees collapsed"? In 2016, the winter is still in full swing, and the empty net industry that is hard to find on the online line has since fallen. What will the air purification industry go from? These problems may have been in many industries. The mind is constantly lingering.
Air pollution management has a long way to go
The air quality improved significantly in 2017, and the originally expected heating season smog was finally “choose the dayâ€. The frequent north-west winds and the continuous action of the government's governance have jointly achieved good weather in 2017. But it is undeniable that the governance of air pollution requires a long process, and the good weather in 2017 is only the first step.
2017 is the closing year and assessment year of the Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan. According to the action plan, by 2017, the concentration of inhalable particulate matter in prefecture-level and above cities will be reduced by more than 10% compared with 2012, and the number of fine days will increase year by year; the concentration of fine particulate matter in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta will decrease by 25% respectively. 20%, 15%, of which, the annual average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Beijing is controlled at about 60μg/m3.
When performance is linked to air quality indicators, governments at all levels are paying more and more attention to environmental improvement issues. From the actual situation, after five years of hard work, in 2017, air improvement results are beginning to appear. Taking Beijing as an example, in 2017, the average annual concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing was 58μg/m3, which fulfilled the target set by the government in 2013. In the rest of the region, in order to achieve the original goal, it can also be said to spare no effort, coal to gas, coal to electricity project rapid advancement, construction, high-energy industry limited production start production, extreme weather vehicle restrictions and other initiatives are numerous.
However, it should be noted that air quality improvement is not achieved overnight. Air purification at a local terminal is much easier than purifying the entire ecology. Take the case of the photochemical pollution incident in London, England. The incident occurred in 1952, but it was not until 1974 that the London government introduced the Air Pollution Control Act, and even the "Environmental Law" passed in 1995 still set the goal of "war fog". . This will also be the case for China to control air pollution. As we all know, the improvement of the overall ecological environment requires a long period and process. Therefore, the air purification industry will not stop and will continue to develop.
More importantly, PM2.5 control at around 60μg/m3 is not the ultimate goal. The biggest hazard of PM2.5 is not that people can see the fog all day, affecting the mood, but invisibly into the respiratory system and cause irreversible damage to the body organs. Therefore, even if the blue sky is transparent, PM2.5 may also slowly erode the body organs. It should be noted that the US standard of high quality air refers to a concentration of PM2.5 below 12 μg/m3, while the value of 60 μg/m3 has reached a moderate level of contamination in the US standard. At the same time, in the process of industrialization, if you want to get a cleaner air, the difficulty can be imagined and there is a long way to go.
It is worth mentioning that the deeper reason for the air environment problem lies in the energy structure. It is undeniable that the coal-to-gas and coal-to-electricity projects in the northern Chinese market have contributed to the blue sky plan, but with the lack of gas supply, people's basic heating needs have also been problematic. The energy structure adjustment that takes the whole body and moves all over the body cannot be achieved in one step. The starting point for choosing clean energy is understandable, but based on China's huge market and population, and the inherent energy composition, further consideration is needed to further replace clean energy. In the face of the shortage of natural gas shortages, some areas have stopped some coal-to-gas projects, and some regions have even implemented limited supply and differentiated supply to protect people's livelihood. The issue of coherence and consistency between economic development and environmental protection will ultimately be resolved. The supply-side reforms and green production advocated by the Chinese government will all be the direction under the new normal, but it is indeed the process and time. If China can solve the air pollution problem in a short period of time without dragging down economic development, it should be a new miracle.
Staged decline, difficult to upgrade the quality of the situation
With the advent of the heating season in 2017, the net net practitioners are increasingly feeling the downturn in the net market. In the winter of 2016, smog frequently hit, and empty net products were in short supply. In the winter of 2017, there was less fog, and the air purifier market seemed to be unattended. According to Zhongyikang data, in the last four weeks of 2017, the retail volume of the air purifier market saw a sharp decline year-on-year, with the largest decline approaching 80%. This cliff-like decline will undoubtedly make practitioners worry and worry.
Does the air purifier industry really only rely on the sky to eat? The answer is obviously no. Haze is only one of the causes of indoor air pollution. Benzene, formaldehyde, microorganisms, bacteria, viruses, etc. will pose a threat to health in the air. Smog is only more directly stimulating consumers' willingness to buy. With the improvement of people's requirements for quality of life and the concern for health needs, high-quality air is bound to become a basic consumer demand.
China has become the world's second largest economy, and the number of middle class groups has gradually increased. At present, China’s middle-income earners are close to 300 million and are expected to double in the next 10 years. According to the plan, during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China will build a well-off society in an all-round way, and the per capita national income will also be at the stage of the middle-income level of the world to a high income level. In 2020, China's per capita GDP will exceed 13,000 US dollars, the Engel coefficient of urban residents is expected to drop to about 30%, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents will double by 2010, the urbanization rate will reach 60%, and the consumption of Chinese residents will exceed 45 trillion yuan. With the increase in income, the consumption structure of urban and rural residents will transition to a higher level, and the requirements for clean air, water and other resources and environment will only be higher and higher.
Although there was a sign of a decline in the net market at the end of 2017, air purifier products continued to grow at a high rate throughout the year. According to Zhongyikang data, from January to November 2017, the retail volume and retail sales of the air purifier market increased by 11% and 20.5% respectively. The market downturn at the end of 2017 will not change the public's demand for clean air.
The decline in the net net market at the end of 2017 was more than that in the same period in 2016. From November to December 2016, it was the time when the smog in northern China was severe, causing consumers to panic purchases of air purifier products, and the market sales continued to surge. According to the data, in November 2017, the proportion of excellent air days in Beijing was 80%, and heavy pollution occurred for one day. In November 2016, the proportion of excellent days in Beijing was 43.3%, severe pollution occurred for 6 days, and serious pollution was 1 day. Compared with the November data, the PM2.5 concentration decreased by 54% year-on-year. Staged air improvements are not a factor that hinders the development of the air purifier market.
It is worth mentioning that the penetration rate of China's air purifier market is still low, and there is still a big gap compared with foreign developed countries. It is understood that the US air purifier market penetration rate has reached 20% to 30%. For the empty net market, Peng Yi, deputy general manager of Zhongyikang Times, said that the Chinese air purifier market is still in its infancy, and there is huge room for growth in the future. Zhongyikang data forecasts that the market size of the air purifier will increase by about 20% year-on-year in 2018.
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